NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and USUAL are in the spotlight as the cryptocurrency market faces renewed macroeconomic challenges. Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000, despite elevated U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) levels and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, signals its dominance in the digital asset space. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Cash benefits from increasing adoption as a payment solution, while USUAL continues to draw attention for its unique positioning and active development.
As the market digests mixed inflows and outflows in the wake of stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data, these three assets remain pivotal in determining the next big move in the crypto landscape. With institutional interest in Bitcoin still strong, on-chain metrics and investment flows offer critical insights into its trajectory.
Bitcoin (BTC): Resilience Amid Hawkish Fed and Elevated DXY
Bitcoin (BTC) has showcased remarkable resilience as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovers at 110, a level historically associated with BTC trading near $20,000.
Tweet highlighted DXY price action might be hinting at a Bitcoin rally.A recent tweet drew attention to this divergence, highlighting Bitcoin’s current position above $80,000. The post suggested a significant decoupling from its traditional inverse correlation with the DXY, and on-chain data and investment flow support this claim.
The Short-Term Holder NUPL metric shows that short-term holders remain profitable despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with no sharp declines into loss territory. This indicates confidence among recent buyers and reduces the likelihood of a widespread sell-off.
Bitcoin net transfer volume to/from exchanges. Source: GlassnodeSimultaneously, Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges highlights consistent outflows, peaking during BTC’s rally in Nov. 2024 and moderating in Dec. 2024. These outflows confirm long-term accumulation trends, further tightening Bitcoin’s liquid supply.
Moreover, the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart strengthens the bullish narrative, revealing that over 65% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has been held for over a year, a sharp increase since late Oct. 2024.
Bitcoin realized cap HODL waves.The accumulation by long-term holders underpins Bitcoin’s price stability, even as macroeconomic conditions become more challenging.
Investment flows further validate these on-chain trends. According to CoinShares, Bitcoin attracted $214 million in inflows last week, the highest among digital assets, despite broader market outflows of $940 million triggered by stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data.
CoinShares weekly fund flows data.Year-to-date inflows for BTC stand at $799 million, solidifying its position as the preferred asset for institutional investors. By contrast, Ethereum suffered $256 million in outflows, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in tech assets.
Bitcoin Price Starts Week In Bearish Mood
Meanwhile, the BTC USD pair had a bad start to the new week, with the token down nearly 6% to reach a daily low near $90,000 on Jan. 13. However, bulls defended the key support level, helping the token back above $91,000. Yet, retail investors seem to be booking profits, especially near the 20-day EMA (red) resistance.
BTCUSD daily price chart with RSI. Source: TradingviewIf the downtrend continues and breaks below the 100-day EMA (blue) trendline, BTC price could force the support near $82,900 into play. Additionally, breaching the immediate support level could force the BTC USD pair to test the support near $71,400.
A rally would likely face resistance near $101,200, flipping which would result in BTC price challenging the resistance near $113,800 before correcting.
Bitcoin Cash Plummets, Continues Moving Inside Bearish Setup
The price of Bitcoin Cash plummeted over 10.5% on Jan. 13, threatening to break below the $400 mark at one point before bulls hoisted the token up. BCH price seems to be struggling under a bearish technical pattern known as the descending triangle, a setup often associated with bearish continuation trends. The pattern features a descending upper trendline, marked by progressively lower highs, and a flat lower trendline serving as a critical support level.
The structure suggests growing selling pressure that weakens every bullish attempt to breach resistance levels.
Analysts recognize the descending triangle as a bearish continuation pattern. The configuration features a declining upper trendline that compresses price action into lower highs, while a flat lower trendline serves as consistent but weakening support.
BCH USD daily price chart with RSI and a bearish technical setup. Source: TradingviewThe pattern signals intensifying selling pressure, resulting in progressively weaker rallies that struggle to breach resistance. In this setup, traders estimate the potential downside by measuring the maximum height of the triangle.
Key technical levels support this bearish outlook. BCH price could face strong resistance near $543 and $474. Breaking above the immediate resistance could ignite hopes of a possible invalidation of the technical setup, which could attract buyers to the market.
A failure to flip the immediate resistance could force the token to test the support levels near $382 and $322. Failure to hold these supports could accelerate BCH’s downtrend.
Meanwhile, BCH’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38.5, indicating weakened bullish momentum and nearing oversold territory. This suggests a bearish bias and the potential for a short-term relief rally before a breakdown.
The USUAL token has been under significant selling pressure, falling 11.03% in the past 24 hours to $0.524. The price has breached critical support levels and is currently testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.487, which could act as a short-term buffer. Below this, the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.399 represents a crucial support zone. A failure to hold above $0.399 could trigger a deeper decline, with the next potential target near $0.255.
Resistance levels remain formidable. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.632 serves as the first major hurdle, with additional resistance at $0.734, near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. For bulls to regain control, USUAL must reclaim these levels and flip them into support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 32.55, indicating imminent oversold conditions.
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